Mavericks vs. Heat prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, Jan. 20 best bets from proven model

Cross-conference foes take the floor at American Airlines Center on Friday evening. the Miami Heat visit the Dallas Mavericks, with the Mavs aiming to stop a three-game losing skid. The Mavericks are 16-7 at home and 24-22 overall, with the Heat entering at 25-21 overall and 11-12 in road games. Christian Wood (thumb) and Maxi Kleber (hamstring) are out for Dallas, with Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle) listed as probable after missing the last two games. Duncan Robinson (finger), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), and Nikola Jovic (back) are out for Miami.

Tipoff is at 7:30pm ET in Dallas. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as the 1-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 218 in the latest Heat vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Mavericks vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 45-20 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs Mavs:

  • Heat vs. Mavericks spread: Heat -1
  • Heat vs. Mavericks over/under: 218 points
  • Heat vs Mavericks money line: Heat -120, Mavericks +100
  • MIA: The Heat are 10-11-1 against the spread in road games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 8-13-2 against the spread in home games
  • Heat vs Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami’s defense is tremendous, and this also projects as a potentially friendly matchup against Dallas. The Heat are in the top five of the NBA in defensive rating, giving up only 1.11 points per possession, and Miami leads the NBA in free throw prevention (20.7 per game) and points allowed in the paint (44.3 per game) this season. Miami is impressive in creating havoc, including 16.4 turnovers and 8.5 steals per game, and the Heat are giving up only 11.5 fast break points per game.

The Heat secure more than 73% of available defensive rebounds, and Miami allows only 12.4 second-chance points per contest. Dallas is very good overall on offense, but the Mavericks are last in the NBA in points in the paint (42.3 per game) and fast break points (9.7 per game). Dallas is in the bottom five in assists (22.2 per game) and free throw accuracy (74.4%), opening the door for Miami to boost defensive productivity.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas has two-way strengths, with the Mavericks ranking in the top 10 of the NBA in assists allowed (24.3 per game) and fast break points allowed (12.8 per game) this season. Dallas is also facing a Miami offense that is in the bottom quartile of the league in field goal percentage (45.8%) and 3-point percentage (33.8%), with the Heat producing only 21.8 free throw attempts per game.

On the offensive end, Luka Doncic leads the NBA in scoring, averaging 33.7 points per game, and the Mavericks are scoring 1.15 points per possession to rank in the top five of the league. Dallas is elite in ball security, committing only 12.5 turnovers per game, and the Mavericks are in the top three in free throw creation (26.4 attempts per game) and 2-point shooting (58.1%). Miami is last in the NBA with only 3.1 blocked shots per game, and the Heat are giving up 36.9% shooting from 3-point range this season.

How to make Heat vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavs vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picksand find out.

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