Krejcikova Will Continue Her Good Run (July 2)

The third round of Wimbledon continues on Saturday with more fascinating matchups.

I’ve found value on two of Saturday’s women’s matches.

Read on for my Wimbledon best bets and previews.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read game for tips on watching tennis matches.

Barbora Krejcikova (-132) vs. Ajla Tomljanovic (+108)

6 a.m. ET

Barbora Krejcikova controlled the baseline well in the second round, beating Viktorija Golubic 6-3, 6-4. Krejcikova won 65% of her service points and saved six-of-seven break points.

She also held Golubic to 50% of her first-serve points won and generated eleven break points, breaking on three occasions. The Czech hit 24 winners compared to 25 unforced errors.

Krejcikova’s improved game career grass-court record to 6-6 on grass, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Krejcikova won the 2018 Wimbledon doubles title, showcasing pinpoint volleys that are so effective on grass.

In addition, it’s incredible that Krejcikova only hit 25 unforced errors against Golubic given the combination of depth, placement and power that she was attempting on her groundstrokes.

Ajla Tomljanovic has not dropped a set at Wimbledon so far, defeating Catherine Harrison 6-2, 6-2 in the second round. Tomljanovic won 83% of her first serves and was only broken once. On return, the Aussie won 55% of her return points and broke serve five times.

Tomljanovic made the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last season and is 34-26 as a professional he grass. She has fairly good rally tolerance on grass, moving opponents around until she finds an opening for a winner.

However, Tomljanovic is not particularly comfortable at the net and in cat-and-mouse points.

Krejcikova is the more dynamic player of the two and despite having much less experience on grass, she has the better game for this surface.

She’s more comfortable approaching the net, having moved forward 37 times in her two matches so far, and winning 25 of those points.

The Czech also has more variety compared to Tomljanovic, with more potent slices and better touch on her shots.

Krejcikova, given the way she was able to put Golubic on a string in the second round, should be able to move Tomljanovic around the court and put her in defensive positions.

pick: Krejcikova ML (-132 via FanDuel)

Katie Boulter (-235) vs. Harmony Tan (+190)

6 a.m. ET

Katie Boulter pulled off a major upset in the second round, defeating Karolina Pliskova 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4.

Boulter won 69% of her first-serve points and 74% of her second-serve return points. In addition, the Brit was not afraid to come forward, and did so successfully, winning 12-of-15 points at the net.

She is 9-3 on grass this season, having beaten strong players such as Tatjana Maria, Alison Riske, Caroline Garcia, and now Pliskova twice. Boulter understands how to construct points on grass and does a great job of dealing with low bounces while waiting for her opportunity to strike.

Harmony Tan followed up her huge victory over Serena Williams by beating Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-3, 6-4 in the second round. Against Sorribes Tormo, Tan won 67% of her first serves and 51% of her return points, breaking the Spaniard’s serve five times.

Tan hit 30 winners against 25 unforced errors, although it is important to note that Sorribes Tormo hit without depth nor pace in this match.

She is now 5-2 on grass for the season. Tan does nothing special out there, but has a high rally tolerance and hits with good depth.

Boulter has beaten high-level opposition throughout the grass-court season, so I’m confident she can maintain her level, whereas this feels more like a flash in the pan for Tan, whose only grass-court wins were in the Gaiba Challenger coming into Wimbledon.

She also won’t concede as many unforced errors as Sorribes Tormo did in the second round.

In terms of Elo ratings, Boulter’s overall Elo is 173.5 points better than Tan’s and her grass-court Elo is 197 points better than the Frenchwoman’s.

pick: Tan to NOT win a set (+110 via FanDuel)

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