The Ducks allow more shots on net than most anybody and are losing their road games by more than two goals per on average. This bodes well for a rested Kings offense on home ice, so which offensive angle will isolate our betting picks?
It’s point night for the Los Angeles Kings as they welcome the Anaheim Ducks who are fresh off a four-game East Coast trip, have the worst goals-against average, and allow the most shots per game.
The Kings come in healthy and could be stacking shots on goal tonight vs. an Anaheim unit that has allowed at least 40 shots in six of its last 10. There’s always a tax to pay when betting against the Ducks in terms of shots, but it’s not as severe tonight with the Kings.
Find out more in my free NHL picks and predictions for Ducks vs. Kings.
Ducks vs Kings best odds
Ducks vs Kings picks and predictions
When dealing with player props vs. the Ducks, bettors should be aware that the great matchup is priced into the lines. We’re constantly seeing high-end players have their SOG markets jump from 2.5 to 3.5 or 3.5 to 4.5 because of how bad the Ducks have been this season and the insane amount of shots they give up on a nightly basis.
However, with the Kings having one of the more extensive lists of player shot totals on the board (six players), that tax isn’t as hefty vs. the Ducks as opposed to a team like the Maple Leafs who have just four players in the SOG market.
Through 34 games, Trevor Moore leads the Kings in shots on goal with 110. Despite getting the most pucks on the net, he’s priced longer than other players like Kevin Fiala (-180, O2.5 SOG) and Adrian Kempe (-140, Over 2.5 SOG).
Moore also leads the team in SOG over the last 10 games with 34 and took his first under after a seven-game stretch of recording at least three shots. On the season, he’s 22-12 O/U on his 2.5 SOG and with a very slight price increase — that is likely due to the matchup — his Over 2.5 shots tonight at -133 is something I’d play to -150 or – 155
Moore sits second on the team in shot attempts per game at 4.9 and is getting 67% of his shots on net, which is a much better mark than Fiala’s 59% and Kempe’s 52%. Moore also benefits from being the primary shooter on the second line and second power-play unit.
My best bet: Trevor Moore Over 2.5 shots on goal (-133 at Betano)
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Ducks vs Kings moneyline analysis
The Kings sit as hefty -270 home favorites tonight vs. the Kings after opening at -250. This is just the third time the Kings have been a -200 favorite and the price is certainly warranted as the Ducks might be the worst team in hockey.
Looking at the schedule spot, the Kings have a big advantage even on top of home ice. LA wrapped up a lengthy six-game East Coast trip (3-3 SU) and returned home last Saturday in a victory over the Sharks. They’ve had just as much time off as the Ducks, but Anaheim is returning from a four-game East Coast trip (2-2 SU) of its own that saw the team play those four games in six nights. Now the Ducks have to readjust to the time change and face a waiting LA team.
Another check for the home side is the health of the league-worst Anaheim goaltending. Anthony Stolarz is out and starter John Gibson has missed two straight games with an undisclosed injury. The Kings will likely see 22-year-old Lukas Dostal, who has played in each of the Ducks’ last four games. He’s been decent (three games with a save percentage of .920 or better), but with the volume of shots Anaheim surrenders on a nightly basis, it’s a thankless job right now to tend the Ducks’ crease.
It’s tough to win when you give up 40 shots a game — something Anaheim has done in six of its last 10 games. The Ducks have been even worse on the road with a 4-16 SU record and a minus-2.15 goal differential per game. That’s right, the Ducks are losing by over two goals on average on the road this season.
The Kings offense is deep and even has scoring talent on the third line with Viktor Arvidsson manning the wing. This is a Top-15 offense and power play. If this game is a shootout, the Kings have the depth to outlast the worst defensive team in hockey that also sports the second-worst penalty kill and takes the second-most penalties in hockey.
Ultimately, it comes down to the price and at -270, the Kings might be a better play with a moneyline parlay with the Flames or Jets for decent plus money. I’d prefer the Kings team total Over 3.5 (-142) than them on the Puck Line at +100.
Ducks vs Kings Over/Under analysis
Let’s see some goals tonight in the nightcap as there’s plenty of value on this Over, especially with books still offering even money on the Over 6.5.
The Ducks are 7-1 to the Over in their last nine games and have scored at least four goals in back-to-back games. Coupled with their GAA north of 4.00, this could be another easy Over for the Ducks.
The Kings haven’t been a stingy team by any means with a 4.10 GAA over their last 10 games. The 9-8 loss to Seattle is skewing that GAA a bit, but LA has still allowed four or more goals in five of its last 10 and has a worse GAA than the Ducks over that stretch, including an average total of 7.4 goals.
Jonathan Quick hasn’t been one of the better goalies in hockey this season with a 3.55 GAA and a .882 SV%. In his 21 games, there’ve been at least six goals scored in 15 of them. He’s also been ceding ice time to Pheonix Copley, who could also get the start tonight after posting back-to-back wins. He’s been serviceable but this is still an LA team that has one of the worst save percentages in hockey and has also been profitable to the over on the season.
With both teams giving it up and the Ducks’ offense warming up, I love this Over at +100 and would play it to -120.
Ducks vs Kings betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in the Ducks’ last six road games. find more NHL betting trends for Ducks vs Kings.
Ducks vs Kings game info
|Location:||crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA|
|dates:||Tuesday, December 20, 2022|
|Puck drop:||10:30pm ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports Southern California, Bally Sports West|